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SETAC North America 2024

The SETAC North America 45th annual meeting was held in Fort Worth, Texas.

Refinements to Use Data Layers (UDLs) Used in Endangered Species Assessments of Pesticides

Logan Insinga¹, Steve Kay²

Applied Analysis Solutions, LLC
Pyxis Regulatory Consulting, Inc

Track: Environmental Risk Assessment

Session: All Things Related to Endangered Species Assessment

Abstract:

In their Endangered Species (ES) assessments for pesticides, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) use datasets called Use Data Layers (UDLs) to spatially delineate potential pesticide use sites. For agricultural uses, the UDLs are currently generated from the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) raster dataset, which is created using a machine learning classification algorithm applied to satellite imagery, agricultural ground truth data, and other ancillary datasets. The current approach for generating agricultural UDLs sources 5 years of CDL datasets which are processed by grouping the more than 100 individual CDL cultivated classes into 13 general UDL classes. While this approach is robust, there are some challenges. One challenge with generating agricultural UDLs is the presence of “spurious pixels” or highly fragmented areas of the UDL that are known to be false-positive classifications (i.e., non-agricultural raster cells classified as agriculture) carried through from the source CDL dataset. The presence of spurious pixels can result in inaccurate estimations of co-occurrence between UDLs and listed species locations, and it is desirable to remove spurious pixels to the greatest extent possible. However, it is difficult to identify and filter spurious pixels in a programmatic way given the nature of the remotely sensed source dataset. Furthermore, it is undesirable to remove actual agriculture from the UDLs, which can occur if agricultural pixels are misidentified as spurious. To address this issue, we propose to mitigate the presence of spurious pixels by incorporating additional processing steps to generate more accurate UDLs. This method builds on the USDA’s refinement of the base raster CDL data into a vector Crop Sequence Boundary (CSB) dataset that uses publicly available data and employs a transparent yet efficient processing workflow. This new methodology virtually eliminates spurious pixels from the UDLs and provides the added benefit of significantly improved processing efficiency leading to a reduction in processing time from weeks for the original CDL based approach to overnight using the new CSB based approach.

Non-Agricultural Use Data Layers: Options and Methodologies for Supporting ESA Overlap Analysis

Jillian LaRoe¹, Matthew Kern² , Christopher Holmes¹

Applied Analysis Solutions, LLC
Balance EcoSolutions, LLC

Abstract:

Exposure assessments for Endangered Species have benefitted from quality spatial data on use sites for agricultural applications of pesticides. There is less development of available data for assessments in non-agricultural settings where pesticides are applied and need to be assessed, like forests, railroads, golf courses, parks, and other commercially managed vegetation. The emphasis on agricultural use sites has produced refined methodologies as well as defined and delineated data sets (e.g., Use Data Layers). However, there is ambiguity within non-agricultural uses in terms of delineating potential use sites and developing robust and comprehensive spatial datasets, particularly at national scales. Recent advancements in data processing/platforms along with the scale and extent of available spatial data present an opportunity to develop more comprehensive datasets for non-agricultural overlap analyses (relationship of use sites to species habitats). We have created customized approaches leveraging detailed datasets, like Open Street Map, to help fill this data gap. We incorporated additional information from other sources, such as historical high resolution aerial imagery, to support boundary editing and refinement of application areas. We present a combination of data sources and methods that can be tailored to curate data for specific objectives, tools and strategies to refine potential exposure for non-agricultural scenarios, as well as applied examples using golf courses, railroad vegetation management, and forests.

Creating More Refined Pesticide Mitigation Areas Informed by Our Familiarity With Species Spatial Data in Support of Carbamate Biological Opinion Development

Dana Christian¹, Matt Kern², Chris Holmes¹, Steve Kay³, Jim Cowles⁴, Kevin Henry⁴

Applied Analysis Solutions, LLC
Balance EcoSolutions, LLC
Pyxis Regulatory Consulting, Inc
Tessenderlo Kerley, Inc.

Abstract:

Pesticide mitigation areas are designed to ensure a pesticide’s use will be protective of listed endangered or threatened species and their critical habitat. A species range can be geographically broad and can include areas unsuitable for habitat due to various environmental factors. There is a need to create more spatially refined pesticide mitigation areas (e.g., Pesticide Use Limitation Areas, PULAs) to better identify habitats where mitigation may be required. We have implemented a process during recent work with carbamates which has allowed us to explore more detailed habitat definitions to refine areas within a species range that, according to the most recent documentation from FWS, are required for a species’ continued recovery. We have worked to develop a “core map” representing locations of the species where mitigations are needed based on species range, critical habitat, known locations, and suitable habitat. We have focused on using the best publicly available spatial datasets in conjunction with the most recent FWS species documentation to build detailed core maps for a wide variety of endangered species. Experience has shown us that, while challenges with resources and uncertainty exist, this range refinement process is possible and valuable for assessment of risk to many endangered species. This presentation lays out the lessons learned and choices made while developing more refined pesticide mitigation areas, based on our extensive experience with species range, critical habitat, potentially suitable habitat and known locations in support of the carbamate BOs.

Date: October 20-24, 2024

SETAC Europe 2024

Seville, Spain is the site for SETAC Europe 2024, with the theme of “Science-based Solutions in Times of Crisis: Integrating Science and Policy for Environmental Challenges”. Applied Analysis Solutions presented 5 posters at this event.

Spatial Approaches to Field Study Characterisation and Representativeness to Address EFSA Guidance on the Risk Assessment for Birds and Mammals

Jillian LaRoe¹, Christopher M. Holmes¹* and Thorsten Schad²

Applied Analysis Solutions LLC, Winchester, VA, USA
Bayer AG, Crop Science Division, Environmental Safety, D-40789 Monheim, Germany

View Poster

New EFSA guidance on the Risk assessment for Birds and Mammals includes updates relating to the improvement of terrestrial vertebrate (TV) field studies for use in risk assessment of Plant Protection Products containing pesticide active substances. Within the guidance, two concepts are discussed: Field Study Characterisation and Field Study Representativeness. To address these concepts, a past terrestrial vertebrate field study was assessed and updated to address the new guidance needs for characterisation and representativeness.

Field study characterisation involved collection and analysis of spatial data available for the study area and relevant to the species, including agricultural fields, grasslands, woody vegetation, forest, water/riparian areas. Percent area metrics were generated for several distances around the study fields, as well as examination of high-resolution imagery suitable for expert evaluation. Weather conditions during the field study were compared against 30-year monthly norms to verify the study year was not outside of expected variation from long-term averages.

Field study representativeness was assessed at multiple scales, including EU, EFSA zone and Member State. The potential for species interaction between “habitat” (a proxy defined by spatial land cover data) with “use sites” (assumed treated fields by crop type derived from agricultural maps) was processed using gridded spatial data at a resolution of 10m. Shared border between habitat and use sites served as an interaction indicator summarized at the 1-km scale (i.e., how many of the 10mx10m use site grid cells were adjacent to habitat cells). The 1-km scale is suitable for further aggregation at various sizes based on species attributes. In this case, local landscape interactions were assessed by developing “scenarios” a 5kmx5km summation of the interaction indicator which was quantified across all EU member states.

The scenario(s) encompassing the study fields were placed into the full distribution of all possible scenarios (EU, EFSA zone, Member State) to assess the study location relative to all possible use site / habitat interactions (i.e., possible field study locations). The quantitative approaches developed here can also be used to prepare upcoming generic terrestrial vertebrate field study designs and support optimized study site selection to meet the new EFSA guidance requirements.

Addressing the Impact of the Mixture Allocation Factor (MAF) on Environmental Risk Assessment: Refining Regulatory Exposure Predictions Using Spatial Data and Modelling Approaches

Christopher Holmes¹, Logan Insinga¹, Juliet Hodges², Jens Bietz³, Liesa Beuter⁴, Geoff Hodges², Diederik Schowanek⁵, James Dawick⁶, Erin M. Maloney⁷, Marc Geurts⁴, Sabrina Wilhelm⁸, Chiara Maria Vitale⁵, Henrique Anselmo⁹

Applied Analysis Solutions LLC, Winchester , VA, USA
Unilever Safety & Environmental Assurance Centre, Sharnbrook, UK
Clariant
Nouryon Specialty Chemicals
Procter & Gamble
Innospec
Shell Global Solutions, Den Haag, NL
BASF
Reckitt Benckiser

View Poster

Under the Chemical Strategy for Sustainability (CSS), the European Commission has proposed the use of a mixture allocation factor (MAF) to address uncertainties and risks associated with unintentional chemical mixtures in the environment. Currently it is thought that a MAF may need to be applied to all single chemical registrations for the higher tonnage bands. It is expected that additional exposure and/or effect data generation will be needed for the risk assessment, and in some cases further risk management measures may be required to ensure environmental safety.

The European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances (EUSES), also accessed via the CHESAR v1 tool is the standard model to determine exposure in support of chemical safety assessments (CSAs) under REACH. In the spirit of continuously refining safety assessments and models, we envisage an opportunity to update exposure model background data in EUSES/CHESAR in line with the evolution of wastewater treatment infrastructure in EU, and availability of better spatial datasets. This would ensure that regulatory modelling remains aligned with most updated data available and the situation in the field.

In this work we explore field data and spatially explicit modelling approaches, some of which are probabilistic, in order to compare them with the current EUSES default parameters. We developed a spatially explicit model which applied the EUSES PEC calculation to estimate environmental concentrations at freshwater discharge locations of almost 22,000 European Urban Wastewater Treatment Plants (UWWTPs). Specifically, using publicly available data, we examined per capita water use, UWWTP connectivity and local UWWTP dilution factors to generate EU-wide distributions and to place these in context with default EUSES values.

We demonstrate that spatially explicit exposure models are feasible for use in regulatory modelling and can give more realistic predicted environmental concentrations (PECs). Case studies have been performed comparing PEC_local values for freshwater using CHESAR v1 including both the current default data and the spatial approach. We expect that higher tier exposure data will be increasingly needed to ascertain that risk quotients remain acceptable even with a MAF applied.

Estimating Marine Chemical Emissions from Discharges of Sewage Treatment Plants into Freshwater Rivers

Logan Insinga¹, Christopher Holmes¹, Juliet Hodges²

Applied Analysis Solutions LLC, Winchester , VA, USA
Unilever Safety & Environmental Assurance Centre, Sharnbrook, UK

View Poster

Changes in demographics are leading to greater urbanization and higher coastal populations which in turn is increasing the need to better understand chemical loading into coastal and marine environments. Many Home and Personal Care Products (HPCPs) are disposed of down the drain by the consumer, whereupon the ingredients typically are released into freshwater rivers having passed through upstream sewage treatment plants (STPs). Further transport to the marine environment can take place. However, there is a currently paucity of approaches to adequately estimate the extent of this emission route into the environment.

Following on from previous work from our group estimating chemical mass discharged directly into marine environments, here we present an approach which utilizes data on hydrologic travel distance/time for inland STPs combined with estimated aquatic half-lives to estimate emissions from upstream STPs into rivers flowing to coastal areas.

We have developed a spatially explicit fate and transport model to estimate emissions into the marine environment across 88 countries. This global model utilizes the HydroAtlas river dataset and covers 44,000 STPs in 34 countries which discharge into both freshwater and coastal waters directly. Ingredient mass discharged from freshwater STPs was estimated using hydrologic routing from the STP and estimated aquatic half-lives to the coastal discharge location. Discharged mass and percent of mass reaching the coast can then be calculated.

Resulting information can be used to refine emission estimates of ingredients into marine environments based on population demographics, disposal scenarios, and STP hydrologic distance to the coast. Results can also be used to inform more refined marine exposure modelling for risk assessment purposes.

A Spatiotemporally Explicit Modeling Approach for Exposure and Risk Assessment of Off-field Soil Organisms

Christopher Holmes¹, Thorsten Schad², Sascha Bub³, Magnus Wang⁴, Klaus Hammel²

Applied Analysis Solutions, LLC, US
Bayer AG, Crop Science Division, Germany
Rheinland‐Pfälzische Technische Universität Kaiserslautern‐Landau, Germany
WSC Scientific GmbH, Heidelberg, Germany

View Poster

Natural and semi-natural habitats of soil living organisms in cultivated landscapes can be subject to unintended exposure by active substances of pesticides used in adjacent fields. Spray-drift deposition and runoff are considered major exposure routes into such off-field areas. In this work we develop a model (xOffFieldSoil) and associated scenarios to estimate exposure of off-field soil habitats at flexible levels of realism (https://github.com/xlandscape/xOffFieldSoilRisk). The modular approach consists of components each addressing a specific aspect of exposure processes, e.g., pesticide use, drift deposition, runoff generation and filtering, and PECsoil estimation. The approach is spatiotemporally explicit and operates at scales ranging from local edge-of-field to large landscapes. The outcome can be aggregated and presented as comprehensible endpoints to the risk assessor, considering ecologically relevant dimensions and scales for species protection. The approach also assesses the effect of mitigation options, e.g., field margins, in-field buffers, or drift-reducing technology. Presented scenarios start with a schematic edge-of-field situation and extend to real-world landscapes of up to 5 km x 5 km. A case study was conducted for two active substances of different environmental fate characteristics. Results are presented as a collection of percentiles over time and space, as contour plots and as maps. The results show that exposure patterns of off-field soil organisms are of a complex nature due to spatial and temporal variabilities combined with landscape structure and event-based processes. Our concepts and preliminary analysis demonstrate that more realistic exposure data can be meaningfully consolidated to serve in standard-tier risk assessments. The real-world landscape-scale scenarios indicate risk hot-spots which support the identification of efficient risk mitigation. As a next step, the spatiotemporally explicit exposure data can be directly coupled to ecological effect models (e.g., for earthworms or collembola) to conduct risk assessments at biological entity levels.

Promoting Defensible Science in Aquatic Exposure Estimation by Integrating Landscape-Level Data into US Endangered Species Assessments

Christopher Holmes^1*, Logan Insinga¹, Steve Kay², Matt Kern³, Jim Cowles⁴, Kevin Henry⁴

Applied Analysis Solutions, LLC
Pyxis Regulatory Consulting, Inc
Balance EcoSolutions, LLC
Tessenderlo Kerley, Inc.

View Poster

Prospective aquatic exposure modeling is a key component of the assessment of potential jeopardy of endangered species during the preparation of a risk assessment related to federal US pesticide (re)registration. The “Biological Evaluation” prepared by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) provides the foundation of aquatic exposure estimates using well-established pesticide fate and transport models applied to a standardized set of crop/soil/weather scenarios. Exposure estimates are based on 30 years of model simulation representing labeled uses of the pesticide assuming maximum application rates, maximum number of applications, and minimum re-application intervals, as well as assuming treated crop is adjacent to the aquatic environment. This modeling forms the basis from which subsequent refinements incorporating spatial, temporal, and pesticide usage variability can be applied. Further refinement of the screening-level modeling is essential to more accurately inform the weight of evidence process used by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and National Marine Fisheries Service to determine species jeopardy in the next stage of the assessment, the “Biological Opinion”.

To support this refinement, we present a highly efficient, quantitative approach that builds on the USEPA’s aquatic modeling by increasing the spatial/temporal context and resolution of exposure estimates to species of interest and producing well-defined and reproducible species-specific estimated aquatic concentrations. Utilizing data for each species, a set of high-resolution catchments, landscape-based crop proximity and density, and pesticide usage, inputs were processed to produce landscape-level exposure concentrations suitable for aggregation at multiple spatial scales appropriate for the species being examined. These refinements show that aquatic concentrations based on screening level assumptions of pesticide use and hypothetical water body scenarios may occur at some locations at limited times, but they are far less likely to occur within species range/habitat than is assumed in the screening-level risk assessments.
The methodologies presented are a quantitative approach to refining aquatic exposure estimates that incorporate variations in landscape and agronomic practices near endangered species locations and provide essential information to help inform localized mitigations for individual species across specific use patterns.

Date: May 5-9, 2024

EPA Environmental Modeling Public Meeting

On October 10, 2023, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will hold a virtual Environmental Modeling Public Meeting (EMPM) to discuss current issues related to modeling pesticide fate, transport, and exposure for pesticide ecological risk assessments in a regulatory context

https://www.regulations.gov/docket/EPA-HQ-OPP-2009-0879/

Presentation:

PWC-PREP Tool: A user-friendly tool to facilitate preparation of label-compliant Pesticide in Water Calculator (PWC) batch input files

Date: October 10, 2023

ACS Fall 2023

The 2023 Fall ACS meeting was held in San Francisco, CA with both in person and hybrid formats. The theme of this meeting is Harnessing the Power of Data.

A Spatiotemporally Explicit Modeling Approach for Exposure and Risk Assessment of Off-field Soil Organisms

Christopher Holmes, Thorsten Schad, Sascha Bub, Magnus Wang, Klaus Hammel, Jane Tang, Gregor Ernst, Thomas G. Preuss

Orienting PWC+ aquatic exposure estimates to inform assessment and mitigation within Pesticide Use Limitation Areas

Christopher Holmes, Steve Kay, Matt Kern, Logan Insinga, Dana Christian, Jim Cowles, Kevin Henry

Estimation of potential aquatic exposure is an important component in the development of Biological Opinions (BOs) for pesticides within an endangered species assessment. Species-specific and geospatially oriented information should be used to identify localized areas where predicted environmental concentrations may exceed a level of concern. These areas can then be addressed with mitigations to avoid jeopardy to the species or adverse modification to critical habitat. Due to their migratory nature, many salmonid species have expansive ranges covering multiple states, with various life stages present in the pacific ocean as well as inland waters. Recent BOs from NMFS utilize a 300-m pesticide use limitation area (PULA) around salmonid habitats where mitigations are intended to avoid Jeopardy to the species. Previously the Generic Endangered Species Task Force (GESTF) have developed and presented an NHDPlus-based aquatic modeling approach based on EPA’s Pesticides in Water Calculator (PWC) refined with spatial proximity and cropping density. This PWC+ model has been enhanced to focus specifically on the 300-m zone and provide additional refinement on localized stream segments as a species-centric approach with greater resolution than that available using the previous NHDPlus catchments. Within the refined PWC+ model, aquatic habitats have been sub-divided into species-relevant lengths (e.g., 100-m lengths) to further identify potential “hot spots” of exposure. In addition, the influence of cropping density has been limited to the area within the 300-m proximity zone. This focuses the analysis on the pesticide use sites most likely to contribute significant loadings and avoid possible ‘dilution’ effects of more distant cropping areas. Outputs identify the areas that may be suitable candidates for mitigations, while also identifying other areas that may not require additional mitigations beyond those already on the label due to lack of nearby use sites and/or low density of overall cropping proximate to habitat assessment units (e.g., 100-m segments). The PWC+ approach can be efficiently applied across species and pesticides and represents a viable and practical option based on available resources. This presentation will briefly summarize the previously developed PWC+ model, discuss the rationale for the model modifications, and illustrate the results using real-world situations based on the recent Biological Opinion for carbamates.

PWC-PREP Tool: A user-friendly tool to facilitate preparation of label-compliant Pesticide in Water Calculator (PWC) batch input files

Logan Insinga¹, Steve Kay², Dean Desmarteau³

Applied Analysis Solutions LLC
Pyxis Regulatory Consulting
Waterborne Environmental Inc.

The USEPA’s Pesticide in Water Calculator (PWC) simulates pesticide applications to land surfaces and subsequent transport to and fate in waterbodies. When using PWC, one significant issue is accurately modeling pesticides as they typically have diverse uses and restrictions that vary based on the use site, region, and time of year. These uses and restrictions are codified in the product label and can be highly interrelated with many permutations of potential applications. Therefore, defining conservative yet label-compliant use-patterns can be difficult and time consuming. Failure to account for all labeled agronomic restrictions including total pesticide amount applied and number of application limitations on an annual and interval specific (e.g., pre-emergence or post-emergence) basis, as well as multiple application rates with rate-specific limitations (i.e., number of applications and temporal windows), minimum reapplication intervals, and pre-harvest intervals can lead to modeling of non-label-compliant or unrealistic application use patterns. In addition, efforts to ensure modeling is conservative (e.g., simulation of applications during wettest months of the year or maximizing total amount applied in a year) can significantly complicate application date assignment logic. To address these difficulties, the Generic Endangered Species Task Force (GESTF) has developed the PWC-PREP Tool to facilitate batch file preparation for PWC modeling. Specifically, the PWC-PREP Tool features a robust algorithm that generates label-compliant application dates and rates for a wide variety of use sites, regions, and chemicals. Leveraging a graphical user interface, the tool is highly configurable and allows the user to control modeling parameters related to application methods, drift factors, agronomic restrictions, and date-assignment. The PWC-PREP Tool to has been successfully used to efficiently parameterize a national set of PWC runs (n > 30,000) that follow label instructions in a manner that is transparent and can be repeated.

Date: August 13-17, 2023

SETAC Europe 2023

SETAC Europe will be held in Dublin, Ireland with some online components this year. The overarching theme is “Data-driven environmental decision-making”.

Using Remote Sensing Methods to Characterize Grassland Landscapes for Scenario Development and Biodiversity Assessment

Jillian LaRoe¹, Christopher M. Holmes¹* and Thorsten Schad²

Applied Analysis Solutions LLC, Winchester, VA, USA
Bayer AG, Crop Science Division, Environmental Safety, D-40789 Monheim, Germany

Grasslands support essential biodiversity and ecosystem services, and their resilience is threatened by climate change and degradation through anthropogenic land use changes. Remotely sensed satellite imagery have previously been utilized to characterize the intensity and usage of grasslands over time and broad geographic areas. We used synthetic aperture radar and optical multispectral imagery with repeat images captured every six and five days (respectively) to identify grassland changes at a high temporal resolution, as highly managed grasslands may be cut multiple times per season (March – October). Time series images were used to characterize grassland type, cutting frequency, and use intensity for over 6,000 grassland parcels in Germany between 2018 and 2021. Training data were collected for grassland types including; silage, meadow (hay), pasture and natural grassland. Spectral indices related to vegetation were derived across grassland parcels to create annual metrics. Thresholding methods were applied to annual time series of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 to detect cutting events within each grassland patch. Results from the two methods were combined to improve cut detection confidence. A random forest modeling approach was used to classify the grassland type and use intensity. The case study area studied was dominated by silage grassland type, and results estimated that 88% of all grassland parcels were cut three or more times per year. The final statistics provide a suite of metrics that may be useful for assessing the quality of insect habitat (e.g., first grassland cutting of the year), habitat connectivity, and investigating which grassland management practices best support biodiversity. Comparable remote sensing approaches have been used to develop landscape scenarios for honey bee (Apis mellifera) risk assessment, selection and characterization of habitat for wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) population models supporting regulatory pesticide risk assessment, and within other studies to characterize insect habitat and biodiversity. Outlook of future activities incorporating these technologies includes fusion of multiscale data sources (e.g, UAVs, satellites, in-situ field observations) and diverse sensor platforms applied to a wide variety of ecological investigations.

View Poster

Heterogeneity in Biological Assemblages and Exposure in Chemical Risk Assessment: Exploring Capabilities and Challenges in Methodology with Two Landscape-Scale Case Studies

Christopher M Holmes¹*, Lorraine Maltby², Paul Sweeney³, Pernille Thorbek⁴, Jens C Otte⁵, Stuart Marshall⁶

Applied Analysis Solutions LLC, Berryville, VA, 22611, USA
The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK
Syngenta, Jealott's Hill International Research Centre, Bracknell, RG42 6EY, UK
BASF, Speyerer Strasse 2, 67117, Limburgerhof, Germany
BASF, Carl-Bosch-Strasse 38, 67056, Ludwigshafen, Germany
6 Prestwick Road, Great Denham, Bedford, MK40 4FH, UK

Chemical exposure concentrations and the composition of ecological species vary in space and time, resulting in landscape-scale heterogeneity. Current regulatory, prospective chemical risk assessment frameworks do not directly address this heterogeneity because they assume that reasonably worst-case chemical exposure concentrations co-occur (spatially and temporally) with species that are the most sensitive to the chemical’s toxicity. Whilst these approaches aim to be protective, a more precise understanding of when and where chemical exposure and species sensitivity co-occur enables risk assessments to be better tailored and applied mitigation to be more efficient. We used two aquatic case studies covering different spatial and temporal resolution to explore how geo-referenced data and spatial tools might be used to account for landscape heterogeneity of chemical exposure and ecological assemblages in prospective risk assessment. Each case study followed a stepwise approach: i) estimate and establish spatial chemical exposure distributions using local environmental information and environmental fate models; ii) derive toxicity thresholds for different taxonomic groups and determine geo-referenced distributions of exposure-toxicity ratios, i.e., potential risk; and iii) overlay risk data with the ecological status of biomonitoring sites to determine if relationships exist. We focus on demonstrating whether the integration of relevant data and potential approaches is feasible rather than making comprehensive and refined risk assessments of specific chemicals. The case studies indicate that geo-referenced predicted environmental concentration estimations can be achieved with available data, models and tools but establishing the distribution of species assemblages is reliant on the availability of a few sources of biomonitoring data and tools. Linking large sets of geo-referenced exposure and biomonitoring data is feasible but assessment of risk will often be limited by the availability of ecotoxicity data. The studies highlight the important influence that choices for aggregating data and for the selection of statistical metrics have on assessing and interpreting risk at different spatial scales and patterns of distribution within the landscape. Finally, we discuss approaches and development needs that could help to address environmental heterogeneity in chemical risk assessment.

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Date: April 30-May 4, 2023

SETAC North America 2022

SETAC North America 2022 will be held in Pittsburgh, PA in a hybrid format. This meeting will have similar events to SETAC Europe, with keynote speakers, training courses, platform and poster presentations, and a multitude of networking opportunities.

Scenario Development for Bee Risk Assessment and Health Modelling

Christopher Holmes¹, Thorsten Schad², Sascha Bub³, Thomas Preuss²

Applied Analysis Solutions, Winchester, VA, US
Bayer AG, Crop Science Division, Environmental Safety, D-40789 Monheim, Germany
University of Koblenz-Landau, Germany

Abstract:

Bee effect modelling has become a core instrument in bee risk assessment (EFSA 2013 'Guidance Document on the risk assessment (RA) of plant protection products (PPP) on bees', EFSA 2018 'A systems-based approach to the environmental RA of multiple stressors in honey bees', EFSA 2021 'Outline of the revision of the Guidance on the RA of PPPs on bees'). Pesticide RA using such models is based on scenarios. In this project we (i) identified key conceptual elements of scenarios in regulatory RA, (ii) developed proposals for these elements, and (iii) generated scenarios for the BEEHAVE model to demonstrate these elements. The example assumed a RA for honeybees related to the use of a PPP in apples located in France. As apple cultivation density increases so does attractiveness of sites for honeybee keeping (occurrence) and exposure potential. Therefore scenario representativeness (level of conservatism) was mainly driven by regional apple cultivation density. Three regions were selected located in different climatic regions to account for weather variability. In these regions, local site selection (i.e., placing the beehive) was done in a combination of bee forage mapping at medium resolution and beekeeper preference. For each site, scenarios were constructed for a 9 km radius around the beehive. In view of a scenario development framework, we propose a tiered scenario development scheme to implement a well-defined level of complexity together with a targeted certainty evaluation. We developed structured bee forage information layers for transparent bee forage modelling: (i) Land use/cover, (ii) Vegetation, (iii) BeeForage. All information layers are spatially and temporally explicit. The transition from one information layer to the next was done by explicit modules, e.g., the BeeForage module represents an approach on how nectar and pollen provision is modelled for a given vegetation and its phenology. According to the tiered scenario scheme, simple modules can be replaced with more sophisticated ones if needed and available. In our example we start with simple representations of processes, e.g., bee forage (nectar and pollen) provision is modelled in five categories (0-4, 4=mass forage) represented in a lookup table defined from literature, by vegetation patches with a monthly resolution vegetation phenology. Due to current technical limitations of BEEHAVE, the spatiotemporally explicit BeeForage(x,t) information is aggregated into <500 units. View Poster

INHABIT for Broad-Scale Assessment of Invasive Terrestrial Vegetation Species

Jillian LaRoe¹

Applied Analysis Solutions LLC, Winchester, VA, USA

Abstract:

The invasive species habitat tool, INHABIT, is a publicly available web tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (Fort Collins Science Center, CO) to model habitat suitability for terrestrial invasive vegetation species across the continental United States. Due to increasing challenges of managing invasive species as well as their ecological and economic impacts, best practices have called for proactive management to prevent spread. The primary challenge land managers are often presented with is that broad-scale assessments require comprehensive landscape surveys of species locations, and often little is known about the distribution of new invaders. INHABIT aims to fill the knowledge gap between known distributions of more than 140 invasive species and the potential risk they pose by modeling broad-scale habitat suitability (90-meter spatial resolution) at four different thresholds, from more conservative estimates to more prolific potential ranges. Using species distribution modeling techniques within a semiautomated workflow, the INHABIT maps ensemble five different modeling algorithms and two different background point selection methods using ecologically relevant predictors specific to each target species. The web tool provides users with the ability to investigate species relevant to different management boundaries, including distance metrics to known species occurrences and summaries of the suitable habitat within a given management area. The habitat suitability maps for each species are also publicly available for download to be used in other analyses. INHABIT development efforts were aimed to support the management objectives of the National Park Service; however, the results have the potential to support broad-scale proactive management of many invasive vegetation species (https://gis.usgs.gov/inhabit/).

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Using Remote Sensing Methods to Characterize Grassland Landscapes and Management Practices for Ecological Health Investigations

Jillian LaRoe¹, Christopher M. Holmes¹ and Thorsten Schad²

Applied Analysis Solutions LLC, Winchester, VA, USA
Bayer AG, Crop Science Division, Environmental Safety, D-40789 Monheim, Germany

Abstract:

We used synthetic aperture radar (Sentinel-1) and optical multispectral imagery (Sentinel-2) with repeat images captured every six and five days (respectively) to identify grassland changes at a high temporal resolution, as highly managed grasslands may be cut multiple times per season (March – October). Timeseries images were used to characterize grassland type, cutting frequency, and use intensity for over 6,000 grassland parcels in Germany between 2018 and 2021. Spectral indices related to vegetation were derived across grassland patches to create annual metrics. Thresholding methods were applied to annual time series of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 to detect cutting events within each grassland patch. Results from the two methods were combined to improve cut detection confidence. Finally, a random forest modeling approach was used to classify the grassland type and use intensity. Comparable approaches have been used to develop landscape scenarios for honey bee risk assessment and health monitoring, select and characterize habitat for wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) population models for regulatory pesticide risk assessment, and within other studies to characterize insect habitat and decline.

The final statistics provide a suite of metrics that may be useful for assessing the quality of insect habitat, habitat connectivity, and investigating which grassland management practices best support biodiversity. Furthermore, these methods could be refined for monitoring grassland use and intensity of use over time to inform management strategies or assess restoration effectiveness.

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Let’s keep it local: Refining aquatic exposure estimates using species-specific landscape information

Christopher Holmes, Steve Kay, Matt Kern, Logan Insinga, Dana Christian, Jim Cowles, Kevin Henry

Abstract:

Prospective aquatic exposure modeling is one of several tools used to assess the potential for impacts in Biological Opinions (BO) for pesticides. The Biological Evaluation (BE) prepared by the EPA for the insecticide carbaryl provides aquatic exposure estimates by using well-established pesticide fate and transport models (e.g., PRZM, VVWM, AgDRIFT) applied to a standardized set of crop/soil/weather scenarios with reported aquatic concentrations generally limited to 30 annual maxima values. Variability in aspects such as spatial proximity, the incorporation of Percent Crop Area, distribution of pesticide treated acres, and temporal aspects of exposure have been identified as areas for possible refinement in recent BEs and BOs and are employed to better inform the risk evaluation. This paper describes a highly efficient, structured approach that builds on the EPA’s aquatic modeling to increase the spatial/temporal context and resolution of exposure estimates to listed species and produces well-defined and reproducible species-specific estimated aquatic concentrations. Utilizing data for each species, the set of NHD+ catchments, landscape-based crop proximity and density, pesticide usage (e.g., Percent Crop Treated), and additional user-selected options (e.g., PCT multiplier, PCA multiplier, alternate application rates), inputs were processed to produce refined exposure concentrations suitable for aggregation at multiple spatial scales appropriate for the species being examined (e.g., range, critical habitat, spawning areas, recovery areas, existing conservation programs). Temporal aspects were examined using multiple endpoints of the 30-year dataset (e.g., 1-in-15 year, median of annual maxima, 95th percentile of daily) as well as daily distributions. Individual PWC output files (labeled use/HUC/aquatic bin/proximity/application method) were scanned using Python scripts to develop summary concentration profiles for differing time periods and distribution points to provide inputs for the refined modeling. The landscape-scale aquatic modeling results provide valuable information to help inform localized mitigations for individual species and across specific use patterns.

View Presentation

AppDates Tool: Automated Label-Compliant Application Date Assignment and Parameterization of Pesticide in Water Calculator (PWC) Batch Input Files

Logan Insinga¹, Steve Kay², Dean Desmarteau³

Applied Analysis Solutions, LLC
Pyxis Regulatory Consulting, Inc.
Waterborne Environmental, Inc.

Abstract:

Endangered species risk assessments for pesticides use prospective models to simulate exposure and aquatic environmental fate. The USEPA’s Pesticide in Water Calculator (PWC) simulates pesticide applications to land surfaces using the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM) and the subsequent transport to and fate in surface water bodies using the Variable Volume Water Model (VVWM). Pesticides typically have diverse uses and restrictions that vary based on the use site, reapplication intervals, region, and time of year. Although PWC does accept a batch file to assist in automation, manual parameterization of numerous model runs is time-prohibitive and prone to human error. Specifically, defining application information (i.e., application dates and rates) is cumbersome due to the agronomic restrictions that are unique to use site and region. Agronomic restrictions include total pesticide amount and number of application limitations on an annual and interval specific (e.g., pre-emergence or post-emergence) basis, as well as multiple application rates with rate-specific limitations (i.e., number of applications and temporal windows), minimum reapplication intervals, and pre-harvest intervals. In addition, efforts to ensure modeling is conservative (e.g., simulation of applications during wettest months of the year and maximizing application rates) further complicate date assignment logic. The Generic Endangered Species Task Force (GESTF) have developed the PWC Tool to automate batch file preparation for PWC modeling. Specifically, the PWC Tool features a robust algorithm that generates label-compliant application dates and rates for a wide variety of use sites and regions. Landscape scale refinements can be implemented via the tool’s graphical user interface where the user defines drift factors that correspond to various transport mechanisms (e.g., aerial, airblast, ground), distances, and receiving water body. The App Dates Tool to has been successfully used to parameterize a national set of PWC runs (n > 30,000) in a manner that was efficient, transparent, and repeatable.

GitHub

View Poster

Date: November 13-17, 2022

ACS Fall 2022

The Fall ACS 2022 meeting will be held in a hybrid format, with in-person events located in Chicago, IL. The theme of the meeting was “Sustainability in a Changing World”, and Applied Analysis Solutions attended this event in person.

Integrating species-specific landscape information into aquatic exposure estimates for endangered species assessments

Christopher Holmes, Steve Kay, Matt Kern, Logan Insinga, Dana Christian, Dean Desmarteau, Jim Cowles, Kevin Henry

Abstract:

Prospective aquatic exposure modeling is one of several tools used to assess the potential for impacts in Biological Opinions (BO) for pesticides. The Biological Evaluation (BE) prepared by the EPA for the insecticide carbaryl provides aquatic exposure estimates by using well-established pesticide fate and transport models (e.g., PRZM, VVWM, AgDRIFT) applied to a standardized set of crop/soil/weather scenarios with reported aquatic concentrations generally limited to 30 annual maxima values. Variability in aspects such as spatial proximity, the incorporation of Percent Crop Area, distribution of pesticide treated acres, and temporal aspects of exposure have been identified as areas for possible refinement in recent BEs and BOs and are employed to better inform the risk evaluation. This paper describes a highly efficient, structured approach that builds on the EPA’s aquatic modeling to increase the spatial/temporal context and resolution of exposure estimates to listed species and produces well-defined and reproducible species-specific estimated aquatic concentrations. Utilizing data for each species, the set of NHD+ catchments, landscape-based crop proximity and density, pesticide usage (e.g., Percent Crop Treated), and additional user-selected options (e.g., PCT multiplier, alternate application rates), inputs were processed to produce refined exposure concentrations suitable for aggregation at multiple spatial scales appropriate for the species being examined. Temporal aspects were examined using multiple endpoints of the 30-year dataset (e.g., 1-in-15 year, median of annual maxima, 95th percentile of daily) as well as daily distributions. Individual PWC output files (labeled use/HUC/aquatic bin/proximity/application method) were scanned using Python scripts to develop summary concentration profiles for differing time periods and distribution points to provide inputs for refined modeling. Options for results presentation integrated into existing R-Plots from Services’ BOs will be illustrated. The spatially explicit aquatic modeling results provide valuable information to help inform localized mitigations for individual species and across specific use patterns. Aspects of efficiency, transparency and documentation were all addressed in the generation of this framework. This presentation describes the purpose, design decisions, and results of these post-screening refinements as related to the recent carbaryl BE.

Date: August 21-25, 2022

EPA Environmental Modeling Public Meeting on Endangered Species

On June 23, 2022, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will hold a virtual Environmental Modeling Public Meeting (EMPM) to engage with stakeholders on EPA’s recently released Endangered Species Act Workplan, with a focus on mitigation strategies.

https://www.regulations.gov/docket/EPA-HQ-OPP-2009-0879/

Presentation:

Integrating landscape-level information into aquatic exposure estimation and localized mitigation potential for endangered species assessments

Date: June 23, 2022

SETAC Europe 2022

SETAC Europe 2022 will be held in Copenhagen, Denmark and was held in person at the Bella Center Copenhagen. The meeting featured training sessions, platform and poster presentations, keynote speakers, and options for networking with other attendees. We were pleased attend the first in-person SETAC conference in quite a while.

Eco-Epidemiology to Assess Potential Risks of Natural and Anthropogenic Factors, Including UV Filters, to Corals in Hawaii

Scott D. Dyer¹ ², Raghu Vamshi¹, Christopher M. Holmes³, Nicholas S. Greena,⁴, Brenna Kent¹, Iain Davies⁵

Waterborne Environmental, Inc.
LeTourneau University
Applied Analysis Solutions
Kennesaw State University
Personal Care Products Council

Abstract:

Recently questions have been raised regarding the environmental safety of some UV filters used in personal, skin care and beach products to corals. In some cases (Hawaii, Key West, Palau) regulatory actions have been precautionary, leading to bans. Eco-epidemiology is a methodology that considers impairments to environmental species and communities from complex combinations of multiple physical and chemical factors with the intent of developing weights of evidence for potential causal relationships. In this study a large set of natural and human influenced factors (including potential risks of measured UV filters and beach visitors) along with coral cover data were assembled to assess the potential adverse effects of UV filters on corals surrounding Oahu, Hawaii within the context of other factors. Principal component analyses simplified the coral data into two components: PC1 representing species diversity and PC2 representing abundance. These components along with all other factors were correlated against each other to determine if some factors could act as proxies for other factors via multiple linear regression and boosted regression tree analyses. Overall, there were good agreements between the two regression methods. The boosted regression tree for PC1 (diversity) showed that 90 percent of the variance were addressed by 3 factors: wave power, temperature (long-term mean) and benthic turf algae. The remaining 10 percent included 13 other factors including beach visitors and UV filters. The regression tree for PC2 (abundance) illustrated 3 factors (temperature long-term mean, latitude, and temperature long-term standard deviation) addressed 75% of the variance. Twelve other factors, including beach visitors and UV filters) were associated with the remaining 25 percent. Hence, it appears that UV filter hazards do not significantly address reduced coral diversity and abundance, suggesting that precautionary bans may not achieve their intended results.

Scenario Development for Bee Risk Assessment and Health Modelling

Christopher Holmes¹, Thorsten Schad², Sascha Bub³, Thomas Preuss²

Applied Analysis Solutions, Berryville, VA, US
Bayer AG, Crop Science Division, Environmental Safety, D-40789 Monheim, Germany
University of Koblenz-Landau, Germany

Abstract:

Bee effect modelling has become a core instrument in bee risk assessment (EFSA 2013 'Guidance Document on the risk assessment (RA) of plant protection products (PPP) on bees', EFSA 2018 'A systems-based approach to the environmental RA of multiple stressors in honey bees', EFSA 2021 'Outline of the revision of the Guidance on the RA of PPPs on bees'). Pesticide RA using such models is based on scenarios. In this project we (i) identified key conceptual elements of scenarios in regulatory RA, (ii) developed proposals for these elements, and (iii) generated scenarios for the BEEHAVE model to demonstrate these elements. The example assumed a RA for honeybees related to the use of a PPP in apples located in France. As apple cultivation density increases so does attractiveness of sites for honeybee keeping (occurrence) and exposure potential. Therefore scenario representativeness (level of conservatism) was mainly driven by regional apple cultivation density. Three regions were selected located in different climatic regions to account for weather variability. In these regions, local site selection (i.e., placing the beehive) was done in a combination of bee forage mapping at medium resolution and beekeeper preference. For each site, scenarios were constructed for a 9 km radius around the beehive. In view of a scenario development framework, we propose a tiered scenario development scheme to implement a well-defined level of complexity together with a targeted certainty evaluation. We developed structured bee forage information layers for transparent bee forage modelling: (i) Land use/cover, (ii) Vegetation, (iii) BeeForage. All information layers are spatially and temporally explicit. The transition from one information layer to the next was done by explicit modules, e.g., the BeeForage module represents an approach on how nectar and pollen provision is modelled for a given vegetation and its phenology. According to the tiered scenario scheme, simple modules can be replaced with more sophisticated ones if needed and available. In our example we start with simple representations of processes, e.g., bee forage (nectar and pollen) provision is modelled in five categories (0-4, 4=mass forage) represented in a lookup table defined from literature, by vegetation patches with a monthly resolution vegetation phenology. Due to current technical limitations of BEEHAVE, the spatiotemporally explicit BeeForage(x,t) information is aggregated into <500 units.

Date: November 14-18, 2021

SETAC North America 2021

SETAC North America 2021 has been moved to an all virtual format, with both on demand presentations and live sessions. Presentations will be viewable 1 week ahead of the meeting, and live sessions will be recorded and made available.

FRAGSTATS: Characterizing Spatial Interaction Between Pesticide Usage and Ecological Receptors to Inform Scenario Selection for Landscape Studies

Insinga, L.¹; Holmes, C.M.¹; Schad, T.²

Applied Analysis Solutions
Bayer CropScience

View Abstract

Integrating FRAGSTATS, ArcGIS Pro and Excel to Automate Spatial Workflows Supporting Landscape-Level Risk Assessments

Insinga, L.¹; Holmes, C.M.¹; Schad, T.²

Applied Analysis Solutions
Bayer CropScience

View Abstract

Integrating Landscape-Level Agronomic Information Into Aquatic Exposure Estimates: Approaches and Benefits

Holmes, C.M¹; Kern, M.²; Kay, S.³; Cowles, J.⁴; Henry, K.⁴

Applied Analysis Solutions
Balance EcoSolutions
Pyxis Regulatory Consulting
NovaSource

Abstract:
Prospective aquatic exposure modeling is a key aspect in the assessment of potential jeopardy of endangered species during the preparation of a Biological Opinion (BO) related to the federal action of pesticide (re)registration. The Biological Evaluation (BE) prepared by the EPA provides the foundation of aquatic exposure estimates using well-established pesticide fate and transport models (e.g., PWC, PRZM, VVWM, AgDRIFT) applied to a standardized set of crop/soil/weather scenarios. Exposure estimates are based on 30 years of model simulation implementing labeled uses of the pesticide specifying maximum application rates, number of applications, re-application intervals and assuming treated crop is adjacent to the aquatic environment. This screening-level approach forms the basis from which subsequent refinements incorporating spatial, temporal, and pesticide usage variability can be applied to better inform the weight of evidence process. This presentation will describe the purpose, design decisions, assumptions and uncertainties, along with results of these post-screening refinements as related to the recent carbaryl BE. Variability in such aspects as spatial proximity, the incorporation of Percent Crop Area, distribution of pesticide treated acres, and temporal aspects of exposure have been identified as areas for possible refinement in recent BEs and BOs as well as agency guidance documents. The implementation of these refinements shows that the 1-in15 year EECs based on screening level assumptions of pesticide use and hypothetical water body scenarios may occur at some locations at limited times, but they are far less likely to occur (within species range/habitat) than is assumed in screening-level risk assessments. The methodologies applied within these refinements allow for a quantitative approach for incorporating variations in landscape and agronomic practices near endangered species locations.

Session:
Advancing Endangered Species Risk Assessment and Mitigation from National-scale to Species-centric Assessments Using 'Best Available' Data

Integrating Landscape-Level Agronomic Information Into Aquatic Exposure Estimates: Proximity and Cropping Density

Christian, D.¹; Holmes, C.M.¹; Kay, S.²; Kern, M.³; Cowles, J.⁴; Henry, K.⁴

Applied Analysis Solutions
Pyxis Regulatory Consulting
Balance EcoSolutions
NovaSource

Abstract:
The spatial relationship between potential pesticide use sites and Endangered Species locations (e.g., range, critical habitat, suitable habitat, known locations) determines exposure and is an influential factor in evaluating potential risk to these species. We developed models and processing approaches to characterize spatial relationships in an efficient and documented manner. As a first step, we characterized potential pesticide use sites (i.e., Use Data Layers, UDLs) in relation to species aquatic habitats. As a second step, we defined the spatial extent of species habitats using the NHD+ framework of flowlines, catchments and static water bodies which formed the basis for our spatial definition of habitat. Each water catchment was characterized in terms of total UDL area forming the basis for Percent Crop Area (PCA) refinements applied to baseline PWC Estimated Environmental Concentrations (EECs) concentrations. Further, eight proximity zones (PZs) around the water bodies were spatially defined in order to quantify UDL areas within each PZ. The use of proximity zones is significant for refinement of ESA assessments as PZ cropping density can incorporate relevant landscape-based drift deposition and runoff/erosion information. We also quantified, for each catchment and UDL, the proportion of crop within the catchment that was greater than 300m (~1000’) or 900m (~2600’) beyond which spray drift deposition no longer contributes to the water body EEC (from ground and aerial applications, respectively). The ability to characterize variability in potential exposure within and between catchments enabled a quantitative and visual distribution of potential exposure across a species range or critical habitat. This landscape-specific information supports spatially-informed, species-specific exposure analyses as an essential line of evidence for the Biological Opinion. This presentation will describe the design and practical implementation of spatial proximity and cropping density approaches for listed species.

Integrating Landscape-Level Agronomic Information Into Aquatic Exposure Estimates: Efficiency and Reproducibility

Insinga, L.¹; Holmes, C.M.¹; Desmarteau, D.²; Kay, S.³; Kern, M.⁴; Cowles, J.⁵; Henry, K.⁵

Applied Analysis Solutions
Waterborne Environmental
Pyxis Regulatory Consulting
Balance EcoSolutions
NovaSource

Abstract:
The challenge of evaluating exposure potential from multiple labeled uses for over 1600 Endangered Species nationally can be intimidating. It is important to be as spatially detailed as possible in order to identify potential product use areas and regional factors that are most relevant to each species being evaluated. In addition, with over 1600 species being evaluated for a multitude of labeled uses modeled on 13 agricultural Use Data Layers (UDLs), efficiency and reproducibility are critical. We developed a highly efficient and structured approach that incorporates best available information in order to increase the reliability and relevance of exposure estimates to listed species. The refinement framework incorporates additional dimensions of aquatic exposure modeling such as cropping density and proximity, pesticide treated acre distribution, and consideration of temporal exposure. A structured and programmatic framework was implemented to build upon the baseline scenario concentrations, and apply spatial, temporal and agronomic aspects to produce well-defined and reproducible species-specific aquatic concentrations. In this presentation we will describe how daily data from thousands of individual PWC output files (labeled use / HUC / aquatic bin / proximity / application method) were scanned using Python scripts to develop summary concentration profiles for differing time periods and distribution points. Utilizing those data for each species, the set of NHD+ catchments, landscape-based crop proximity and density, pesticide usage (e.g., Percent Crop Treated), and user options (e.g., PCT multiplier, alternate application rates) were processed to produce refined exposure concentrations suitable for aggregation at multiple spatial scales appropriate for the species being examined. Transparency of input data, modeling run options and availability of raw and formatted results was paramount in this process and resulted in the ability to rapidly process and document alternative cropped areas, application rates, intervals and other variables.

Integration of Landscape Scale Information to Reduce Uncertainty in Endangered Species Assessments and Protection Strategies for Pesticides

Kern, M.¹; Kay, S.²; Holmes, C.M.³; Cowles, J.⁴; Henry, K.⁴

Balance EcoSolutions
Pyxis Regulatory Consulting
Applied Analysis Solutions
NovaSource

Abstract:
The protection of federally listed threatened and endangered species requires a multidisciplinary approach that leverages best available data to accurately identify and address risk to species and their habitats. Assessment and management uncertainty can be significantly reduced by applying localized spatial and temporal landscape information along with information about potential stressors. Several pieces of information should be collected at the onset of each assessment to address potential risk including 1) an understanding of where the species and its habitats are most likely to occur in the landscape, 2) identification of factors or conditions required to support the species, 3) knowledge and prioritization of stressors already identified as influential to species status, 4) a determination of where the stressor being evaluated is likely to occur on the landscape relative to species and its habitats, 5) an assessment of the potential degree to which the stressor may influence the species. This information can be used for targeted management strategies regarding the unique relationship between the species and stressors being evaluated. State and federal agencies often collect extensive information on species status, requirements, habitats, influencing stressors and recovery goals which can be used to develop the information set described above. In cases where pesticides are being evaluated as a potential stressor, registrants often have extensive product knowledge that can be applied to further reduce uncertainty in these assessments. We present an approach using a model insecticide that integrates species and product information at a local, species-centric scale. Several examples are presented that outline a pragmatic approach to reducing assessment uncertainty so that species management strategies and resources can be effectively applied. These general approaches can be used for many pesticides and will facilitate a more efficient process for evaluating risk that may, or may not, be reasonably certain to occur for species.

Session:
Advancing Endangered Species Risk Assessment and Mitigation from National-scale to Species-centric Assessments Using 'Best Available' Data

Species-Specific Avoidance in ESA Assessments of Pesticides: A Proposed Strategy for Determining Appropriate Measures and How to Implement Them

Kay, S.¹; Kern, M.²; Holmes, C.M.³; Cowles, J.⁴; Henry, K.⁴

Pyxis Regulatory Consulting
Balance EcoSolutions
Applied Analysis Solutions
NovaSource

Abstract:
The process to assess the potential of a pesticide to jeopardize endangered species continues to evolve with input from regulatory agencies, industry, non-governmental organizations, and other stake holders. The current approach does not consider possible measures (or “avoidance”) to help address potential jeopardy until the very end of the process when the Services might issue Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPAs) intended to reduce exposure and/or Reasonable and Prudent Measures (RPMs) intended to minimize “incidental take”. However, proposed avoidance measures could be integrated earlier in the assessment process to develop targeted, species-specific solutions that address potential jeopardy concerns while avoiding unnecessary impacts to growers. This presentation will describe a proposed strategy for identifying the potential need for avoidance in a targeted manner, possible ways to incorporate that information into the ESA assessment as early in the process as possible, and how the avoidance can be implemented.

Session:
Advancing Endangered Species Risk Assessment and Mitigation from National-scale to Species-centric Assessments Using 'Best Available' Data

Use Of An Eco-Epidemiology Approach To Assess Potential Risks Of Natural And Anthropogenic Factors, Including UV Filters, To Coral Community Status In Hawaii

Dyer, S.D.¹ ²; Vamshi, R.¹; Kent, B.¹; Abi-Akar, F.¹; Holmes, C.M.³; Green, N.S.¹ ⁴; Davies, I.⁵

Waterborne Environmental, Inc.
LeTourneau University
Applied Analysis Solutions
Kennesaw State University
Personal Care Products Council

View Abstract

Date: November 14-18, 2021

ESRI User Conference

The 2021 ESRI User Conference focused on five related themes which aimed to provide the basis for a more interconnected world, and also explored how GIS tools have adapted to support the new virtual environment.

Communicating Spatial Aspects of Endangered Species Pesticide Risk Assessment
The GESTF Species Information Viewer, a collection of webmaps and dashboards within ArcGIS Online, is helping us communicate relevant factors within a pesticide risk assessment for endangered species. This tool presents visualizations of data and statistics so the biological experts, who may not be fluent in GIS, can examine relevant spatial information regarding factors potentially impacting each species, to support more informed decision making.
Dana Christian

Date: July 12-16, 2021

SETAC Europe 2021

The SETAC Europe 31st annual meeting theme is “Global Challenges. An Emergency for Environmental Sciences” and was held in an all virtual format.

Comprehensive Characterization of Agricultural Proximity to Surface Water in France

Holmes, C.M.¹; Insinga, L.¹; Sweeney, P.²; Loiseau, L.³; Johnson, D.²

Applied Analysis Solutions, Berryville, VA, USA
Syngenta, Jeallot’s Hill, Bracknell, UK
Syngenta AG, Basel, CH

View Presentation Slides

View Extended Abstract

Increasing Ecological Relevance of Chemical Risk Assessments Using Geospatial Approaches: Results From Two Case Studies

Holmes, C.M.¹; Marshall, S.²; Maltby, L.³; Sweeny, P.⁴; Thorbek, P.⁵; Otte, L.C.⁶

Applied Analysis Solutions LLC, VA, USA
Consultant, Bedford, UK
University of Sheffield, UK
Syngenta, Bracknell, UK
BASF, Limburgerhof, Germany
BASF, Ludwigshafen, German

View Presentation Slides

View Extended Abstract

Surfactant case study: Increasing the ecological relevance of chemical risk assessments using geospatial approaches

View Surfactant Poster

View Surfactant Case Study Abstract

PPP case study: Increasing the ecological relevance of chemical risk assessments using geospatial approaches

View PPP Poster

View PPP Case Study Abstract

Landscape Characterization with Google Earth Engine: Functionality Supporting High Resolution Spatiotemporal Analyses Using Satellite Imagery

Holmes, C.E.¹ ²; Löw, F.; Schad, T.³; Holmes, C.M.²

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA
Applied Analysis Solutions, Berryville, VA, USA
Bayer CropScience, Monheim, Germany

View Presentation Slides

View Extended Abstract

Estimating Domestic Wastewater Emissions to Marine Environments Using a Spatial Extrapolation Approach

Holmes, C.M.¹; Tandy, E.¹; Schleicher, Z.²; Kilgallon, J.³; Hodges, J.³

Applied Analysis Solutions, Berryville, VA, USA
Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville, IL, USA
Unilever Safety & Environmental Assurance Centre, Sharnbrook, UK

Abstract:

Domestic wastewater discharged to the environment may contain chemical substances that are the result of everyday human activity such as personal care, home cleaning and using medications. While most discharge is to freshwater rivers and lakes, some facilities in coastal areas discharge into the marine environment. As population densities continue to grow in coastal areas, understanding where these marine emissions occur is increasingly important for assessing both marine and freshwater ecological risk. Making this type of evaluation across large spatial scales is challenging though because information on wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) location and discharge type is often lacking. To address this data gap, we developed a global-scale dataset focused on marine emissions with the goal of understanding what fraction of the population in coastal areas may be discharging to a marine environment via a WWTP. Information on WWTP location, population served, and effluent flow were collected for 44,000 WWTPs across 34 countries serving one billion people. Using these training data, we developed a spatial extrapolation method utilizing urban and rural populations, their likelihood of purchasing products based on economic productivity, and how far they live from the coast. Using global spatial datasets, extrapolation was possible from our training data (e.g., an entire country or only a selected portion thereof) to any target country that lacks source data for WWTPs. The extrapolation results in aggregated estimates (e.g., administrative units, hydrologic basins) of the fraction of population connected to WWTPs discharging directly to the marine environment. This poster will present information on the source WWTP data collected, global spatial data utilized, extrapolation methods examined with results, along with an evaluation of results using data outside the training set. A spatial understanding of the WWTP effluent fraction discharged to the marine environment not only increases our ability to assess and protect near shore marine habitat, it also refines emission estimates for freshwater ecological risk scenarios used in regulatory assessments.

View Presentation Slides

Grassland Management Change Over 25 Years: A Landscape Analysis Using Remote Sensing

Holmes, C.M.¹; Pritsolas, J.²; Pearson, R.²; Butts-Wilmsmeyer, C.²; Schad, T.³

Applied Analysis Solutions, Berryville, VA, USA
Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville, IL, USA
Bayer CropScience, Monheim, Germany

View Presentation Slides

View Extended Abstract

Date: May 2-6, 2021

SETAC Virtual Seminars: What We Know and What We Need To Know: The Analysis, Monitoring and Effects of Microplastics in Humans and the Environment

The SETAC Virtual Microplastics Seminar is a series of virtual seminars given from March 16 to April 6, 2021. This meeting will focus on the current state of microplastic policies and discuss novel modeling approaches to guide the future of micro- and nano-plastics in the environment.

As an invited speaker, Applied Analysis Solutions will be presenting “Prospective Modelling of Microplastic Exposure in Freshwater Systems” during Seminar 4: Modelling of Microplastics in the Environment – Policy or Regulatory Implications?

Prospective Modelling of Microplastic Exposure in Freshwater Systems

Date: March 16-April 6, 2021

SETAC North America 2020

The SETAC North America 41st annual meeting was held in a virtual format. The meeting emphasized the need for environmental scientists and managers from all sectors to work together at a global scale to address shared environmental challenges. The meeting offered opportunities to focus on transdisciplinary advances within a holistic system approach to meet these challenges head on. Presentations are available on the SETAC website.

Informing Effects Modeling Using Historic Changes in Habitat Derived from Remote Sensing

Holmes, C.M.¹; Pearson, R.²; Pristolas, J.²; Schad, T.³

Applied Analysis Solutions LLC, Berryville, VA, USA
Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville, IL, USA
Bayer CropScience, Monheim, Germany

Ecological effects modeling for population or community level environmental risk assessment seeks to describe the interactions of biological, chemical, environmental and anthropogenic factors in relation to stressor-response relationships. Changes in landscape over time can play a large role in habitat suitability and species occurrence, important aspects in population-level modeling. Landscape change can be assessed from retrospective analyses or predictive efforts based on models or assumptions.

This presentation describes novel remote sensing image processing methods used to capture landscape-level changes in grassland extent and management within a 300 km² area over a 25-year period near Krefeld, Germany. Over 150 satellite images were acquired from NOAA’s Landsat program spanning 1989 to 2013 from all seasons. Images within each year were normalized for atmospheric and illumination variation to focus on vegetation changes due to plant structure and vigor using different vegetation indices based on visible and infra-red wavelengths.

Four groups of grassland fields were identified using a k-means clustering algorithm based on spectral information. In several groups, periods of distinct increase in vegetation biomass (defined by vegetation indices) could indicate changes in grassland management practices over that time from natural grassland cycles to include more intensive management activities (e.g., fertilization, more frequent cutting, silage production). Other groups showed relative consistency across time.

All data used in this study are geographically referenced and processed in a Geographic Information System (GIS). These data are suitable for spatially-explicit landscape-level ecological modeling efforts exploring the multitude of stressors that may impact biological communities over time. This is especially important for retrospective modeling studies where ecological models are used to explain empirically derived data over time (e.g., sampling of insect counts and biomass). Grassland areas are important habitat for some groups of insects and understanding historic changes in grassland extent and management provides a key factor in the study of landscape-level ecological effects modeling. We have demonstrated the feasibility and applicability of utilizing information from freely available satellite image archives for habitat characterization of historic landscape patterns and changes over a 25-year period.

SETAC North America 2020

Marine Emissions From Municipal Treatment Plants: Refining Our Understanding and Defining Spatial Variability at a Global Scale

Holmes, C.M.¹; Tandy, E.¹; Schleicher, Z.²; Kilgallon, J.³; Speirs, L.³; Hodges, J.³

Applied Analysis Solutions LLC, Berryville, VA, USA
Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville, IL, USA
Unilever Safety & Environmental Assurance Center, Sharnbrook, UK

Pharmaceuticals, pesticides, biocides, and ingredients in home and personal care products are often disposed of via waste water. This can lead to exposure of aquatic ecosystems through discharge from municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Aquatic exposure models primarily focus on freshwater systems and often address marine exposures simply as a variation of a freshwater scenario (e.g., by increasing the dilution factor). However, the average population density in coastal areas is now twice the world’s average population density, and many of the world’s coasts are becoming increasingly urban (14 of the world’s 17 largest cities are coastal located). Thus developing a better understanding of marine emissions is thus becoming increasingly important.

The aim of this research is to develop and analyze a global-scale dataset focusing on marine emissions (i.e., near shore coastal waters) with the goal of understanding what fraction of the population in coastal areas may be discharging directly to marine environments. The ultimate goal is to couple this information with environmental exposure models using spatially-explicit information on substance uses, pathways to the environment, and eventual fate in aquatic ecosystems.

Information on WWTP location, population served, and effluent flow were collected for 44,000 WWTPs across seven case studies (AU, BR, CA, EU, MX, SG, and US) covering all four hemispheres (North/South, East/West) for over one billion people. WWTPs were attributed as discharging to coastal waters (CW) from source data or analysis of receiving waterbody. Spatial analysis showed that WWTPs for 27% of the population served are within 10km of the coast. Global hydrologic data were used to identify 50,000 basins with the potential to discharge to coastal waters. Basins within our seven case studies were analyzed to characterize the WWTPs and population in terms of CW discharge. Of the 258,000 people in these coastal basins served by WWTPs, 50% are served by WWTPs discharging to coastal waters. Spatial population data were used to characterize coastal basins globally, with results extrapolated to other countries, to assess the potential for marine emissions using data on basins, distance to coast, gridded population, and urban delineations.

This is a novel step forward in understanding potential global-scale marine emissions from WWTPs with the goal of balancing realism and practical applicability in environmental safety programs.

SETAC North America 2020

Advancing Beyond the Draft Biological Evaluation of Carbaryl for Federally Listed Species

Kern, M.¹; Holmes, C.M.²; Kay, S.³; Cowles, J.⁴; Henry, K.⁴

Balance EcoSolutions, LLC
Applied Analysis Solutions, LLC
Pyxis Regulatory Consulting, Inc
Tessenderlo Kerley, Inc.

The Endangered Species Act (ESA) requires federal agencies to ensure that their actions are not likely to jeopardize the continued existence, nor destroy or adversely modify the designated critical habitat, of species listed as threatened or endangered under the ESA. For pesticides, a Biological Evaluation (BE) is conducted by the EPA as a first step in the ESA assessment. If EPA’s BE determines a pesticide may affect a listed species or its designated critical habitat, EPA must initiate consultation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and/or the National Marine Fisheries Service (Services) depending on which agency has jurisdiction over the species.

On March 17, 2020, EPA posted to the Federal Register (FRL-10006-38) the release of their draft Biological Evaluation (BE) assessing potential risks to listed species from labeled uses of carbaryl. In parallel, the EPA posted a Revised Method document (EPA-HQ-OPP-2019-0195) detailing updated methods for conducting a BE. The revised methods include the use of actual pesticide usage data and distribution of treated acres, alternate assumptions for species population numbers, probabilistic approaches, and a weight-of-evidence framework for making effect determinations. As noted in the BE, the methods used in these analyses continue to evolve over time.

To further support this advancement, case studies implementing the Revised Methods were conducted to understand and evaluate the approaches used in the draft BE for carbaryl. To increase the reliability and relevance of the assessment, this work also considered additional methods and lines of evidence to reduce uncertainty. Central to this approach is analyzing potential impacts to a species for individual use patterns and including species specific information. The transparency and availability of information from the full BE analysis is critical to support the Services in jeopardy determinations. The case studies demonstrate the need to bring as many relevant and realistic lines of evidence into the assessment as early as possible to help advance the evaluation of risk to listed species and inform the development of the Biological Opinion (BO) for carbaryl.

SETAC North America 2020

Date: November 15-19, 2020

Explore 2020

Explore is the second annual conference hosted by Planet, which in 2020 was delivered in a virtual format. Speakers include Al Gore, Kenneth Roth, Chris Hadfield, as well as other industry experts in imagery. Explore aims to bring together industry thought leaders, customers, partners, end users, and developers for learning and conversation about leveraging imagery and insights to make an impact in our ever-changing world.

Date: October 13-15, 2020

2020 ENVI Analytics Symposium

The theme of the 6th annual EAS was “The Geospatial Vision for the Next Decade.” EAS provides a platform for geospatial users and scientists to collaborate on rapidly emerging trends and explore new solutions.

Date: August 25-27, 2020

ACS Fall 2020 Virtual Meeting & Expo

ACS National Meetings are where chemistry professionals meet to share ideas and advance scientific and technical knowledge. By attracting thousands of chemical professionals, the meetings provide excellent opportunities for sharing your passion for chemistry, connecting with the world’s largest scientific society, and advancing your career in this ever-changing global economy. The 2020 meeting and expo was held virtually.

Geospatial model to estimate microplastics entering waterways from wastewater systems and land applied biosolids

Ritter, A.¹; Roy, C.¹; Hoogeweg, G.¹; Holmes, C.M.²

Waterborne Environmental Inc., Leesburg, VA, USA
Applied Analysis Solutions LLC, Berryville, VA, USA

There is a need for exposure models to simulate the pathways and transport of such particles in waterways especially with increasing public awareness about the presence of microplastics in the environment. Microplastics may enter the environment from various sources and in many forms. One source includes personal care products containing plastic particles being washed down residential drains and entering municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). A large portion of these plastic particles are removed from the water phase during the treatment process, and generally end up in the solids (i.e., sludge). Sludge disposal varies by country, region and locality, including landfill, incinerator, compost, or as land-applied biosolids. There is potential for particles in biosolid applications to reach aquatic systems depending on application location and subsequent environmental conditions. This poster will present a broad-scale model designed to estimate emissions and model the fate of plastic particles exiting WWTPs into the terrestrial and aquatic environments in Europe. The model uses geospatial information on WWTPs, river hydrology and terrestrial transport potential. This regional/continental scale model is based on publicly available datasets and contained in a modular and transparent framework which is scalable and portable to multiple geographies. This presentation will demonstrate the utility of the model and how the resulting information about ultimate mass disposition (e.g., soil, freshwater, sediment, marine) and concentrations (surface water, sediment) can be used to help inform the discussion about prospectively assessing the presence and concentration of microplastics in the environment as emitted by WWTPs as effluent or transport from fields applied with biosolids.

Date: August 17-20, 2020

SETAC North America 2019

This meeting emphasizes the need for environmental scientists and managers from all sectors (e.g., academia, business, government, non-profit, non-governmental and intergovernmental organizations) to work together at a global scale to address shared environmental challenges. Under such a paradigm, discrete technical advances would be leveraged to create harmonized approaches towards mutual solutions. The SETAC North America 40th annual meeting was held in Toronto, ON, CA.

Presentations by Applied Analysis Solutions:

Geospatial approaches to increasing the ecological relevance of Environmental Risk Assessment

Holmes, C.M.¹; Maltby, L.²; Marshall, S.³; Otte, J.C.⁴; Sweeny, P.⁵; Thorbek, P.⁴

Applied Analysis Solutions LLC, USA
Sheffield University, UK
Consultant, UK
BASF SE, Germany
Syngenta, UK

The prospective risk assessment of chemicals across all regulatory jurisdictions follows a generic approach, comparing estimated exposures to toxic thresholds designed to be protective of all species. This approach does not recognize geographic patterns of species distributions or acknowledge that particularly sensitive species may not occupy potentially exposed habitats. Therefore, risk assessments could be overly conservative and restrictive for some uses of chemicals.

Geo-referenced ecological data are becoming increasingly available at spatial resolutions applicable to chemical risk assessment, potentially facilitating enhanced environmental relevance of such risk assessments. Greater realism in assessing additional stress due to chemical exposure could be achieved if the range of managed and unmanaged environmental typologies and their constituent biological communities were mapped and described.

In 2017 ECETOC initiated a Task Force to investigate current capabilities in making spatially explicit chemical risk assessment (from both an exposure and effects perspective). After comprehensive research for applicable and available data, we investigated techniques and methods for combining disparate data sets using case studies, and identified some of the challenges of using different levels of taxonomic, spatial and temporal resolution in spatially explicit risk assessments.

View Poster Presentation

Modeling aquatic and terrestrial transport pathways for microplastics entering WWTP systems

Holmes, C.M.¹; Amos, J.²; Dyer, S.³

Applied Analysis Solutions LLC
Waterborne Environmental, Inc
Waterborne Environmental, Inc and LeTorneau University

Background:

Microplastics may enter the environment from a number of sources and in many forms.
Plastic particles may be present as influent into municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs).
A large portion of these are removed from the water phase during the treatment process, and generally end up in the solids (i.e., sludge).
Sludge disposal varies by country, region and locality, including landfill, incinerator, compost, or as land-applied biosolids.
There is potential for particles in biosolid applications to reach aquatic systems depending on application location and subsequent environmental conditions.

We present a broad-scale model designed to estimate emissions and model the fate of plastic particles exiting WWTPs into the terrestrial and aquatic environments using spatially-explicit information on WWTPs, river hydrology and terrestrial transport potential. This regional/continental scale model is based on publicly available datasets and contained in a modular framework which is scalable and portable to multiple geographies.

View Poster Presentation

Sources, characteristics and opportunities for pesticide use and usage information applied to listed species risk assessment

Holmes, C.M.¹; Amos, J.²; Snyder, N.²; Kern, M.²; Cowles, J.³; Henry, K.³

Applied Analysis Solutions LLC
Waterborne Environmental, Inc
NovaSource/Tessenderio Kerley, Inc

One challenge in national-level pesticide endangered species risk assessments is the viable identification and incorporation of pesticide usage information in the risk assessment process. Pesticide “usage” differs from pesticide “use”,

"Use” is defined by registered labels and describes limits on how the pesticide may be applied (i.e., maximum rates and number of applications)
“Usage” describes documented applications with specific information on each individual application event (usually surveys or self-reporting)

Our goals :

Account for variability in pesticide usage practices for which we have information
Address uncertainty about which fields are treated (and to what degree)
Must be applicable nationally, and suitable with existing species range definitions
Transparent and robust (i.e., configurable)
Ultimately provide context for potential exposure within the species range

Available usage data can improve exposure predictions and ultimately lead to improved risk assessments.

View Poster Presentation

Date: November 3-7, 2019

Environmental Modeling Public Meeting

The Environmental Protection Agency’s semi-annual Environmental Modeling Public meeting is a public forum available to discuss issues related to modeling pesticide fate, transport, and exposure for risk assessments. The meeting focused on usage data(sources, applications, and extrapolation), model parameterization, and ongoing topic updates.

Presentations by Applied Analysis Solutions:

Application of Pesticide Usage Information in a Probabilistic Framework to Inform Listed Species Exposure

Date: October 16, 2019

Product Stewardship Conference 2019

The Product Stewardship Conference offers an experience like no other by bringing together professionals from more than a dozen different industry sectors and throughout the value chain to deliver unique education and networking opportunities. The 2019 conference was held in Columbus, OH. Chris co-chaired and presented in the session “Tiers for Fears: Applying Fit-for-Purpose Risk Assessment in Environmental Stewardship”.

Presentations by Applied Analysis Solutions:

Date: September 11, 2019